Sunday, July 31, 2011

GoGold (resources), go!

or what abt: go gold bugs go! also too long? lets abbreviate it a little bit: GoGold go!


folks, the gold price is climbing higher and higher and most of my gold/silver stocks are falling lower and lower => what the hell is going on in the financial markets? pls dont let me get started on the stupidity of homo sapiens financialis and how i hate investors / traders, ok?

well, even on friday, when gold reached its high-high-higher all-time-high $1,626 per ounce, most of my mining stocks were DOWN, DOWN, DOWN :-(. did i ask ya what the hell is going on already? no? consider as asked right now ...

thx goodness, not all gold/silver stocks were down on friday. GoGold resources was +10.4%, hmmmmm ... and it went up like crazy the last few days as well => hmmmmm again .... how much up? well, lets try 2 bother my calculator .... (hours of failed attempts in between ;-) ... +53.3% in only two weeks? OMG! what the hell is going on @ GoGold (GGD.V)? well, lets look at these canadian gold explorers a little bit closer:
  • ive bought few shares in march after ive met few old buddies at their booth @ PDAC in toronto. i liked the story, i liked the prospects, i liked the share stucture (approx 80% of the company is held by mngmt / insiders / institutions), but i didnt like the share price. it was sooooo high compared to the price from last november/december. of course, many mining stocks shot up a lot since that time, but GoGold increased three times i guess. well, im not going to bother my calculator this time and cant ask my youngest daughter either cos shes on vacation right now. the school year in munich (and whole bavaria) was over on friday, u know? so what to do in an investment case like this one? it was quite easy! same procedure as always: ive made a pilot buy (im not that paper trader / watchlist investor kind of guy, u see?), applied for companys newsletter, liked it at facebook, started 2 follow these guys' share price and their news flow ... u know what? GoGold is my best performing stock out of all my PDAC ideas! it is up 30% in less than 4 months, my dear ;-)
  • what abt its peer group? unfortunately, the vast majority of my 21 new investments from march 2011 was kicked down by mr. market in the recent overall market correction (april-july) sooooo deep and most mining companies are still down a lot (many 20%-55%, but u not gonna tell that my wife, promised?). there is only 1 additional 'PDAC' company which is up significantly ~ goldstone resources +20% after it received a take-over offer from premier gold mines few weeks ago.
  • what abt any company related issues? well, there were few nice surface samples collected at their flagship property in durango / mexico and theyve also acquired some additional land there ... some directors named, some options issued ... nothing special imho 
  • when will they 'produce' some cash? i have no clue how long it will take them to bring their first mine into production, i should prolly read their next news releases more detailed, shoudnt i?
  • i suppose this CAD 57m company is not much known, ive never heard/read s.th. abt it in €urope and there is also no €uropean listing yet ...
  • what abt the volume in GoGolds recent ride? yep, it is slightly up, but it didnt went parabolic yet .... who the hell is collecting all shares out there?
  • wanna risk 2 take a look at GoGolds chart? quite a run, isnt it? 
  • any lessons learned? yep! it is not important when u buy your stocks - the only thing which matters is how high they will go after u have bought them :-) lol
anything else? coming soon or never 

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

wild australian cannibals!

eat or be eaten? ive met wild australian cannibals 2day and survived! instead of eating their lunch @ the investor event in munich, they really preferred their own species instead :-)

crazy mining business, focus minerals eats crescent gold :-). well, im shareholder of both of them, so what?

poll ~ what do u prefer:
A) more details abt focus/crescent?
B) ticket to hell?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
one two three four... baaaang!

... B? it is not that easy to come to hell, u have 2 deserve it first, my dear 

ok, the focus minerals (FML) ~ crescent gold (CRE) issue is basically abt the combination of these 2 australian 100k oz gold producers in order to build up an +200k oz p.a. producer overnight, u know? the focus guys have cash, the crescent guys need it badly, what a coincidence!

of course, a combination of businesses isnt a bad thing per se, the take-over price matters. but a perceived price next to nothing hurts like hell, im going tell ya! it is 50% below the last crescent financing i participated in (AUD 0.11 per share in january i think) ... btw, ive started 2 buy crescent shares in march 2008 when the gold price was prolly $700 - $800 and increased my holdings few times after that ('bottom fishing') .... my overall investment is waaaay down, approx -40% on average (in €uro terms) even after the smooth increase in the last 2 weeks. what abt the gold price? hmmm, a next high-high-higher all-time-high $1,619 today ==> what went wrong @ crescent? well, the management made few mistakes, the production  operations werent always that easy&cheap going business as expected and then there were the massive rains in australia which 'brought' crescent high additional expenses while the income completely disappeared for some time ... bad luck this time, isnt it?

so what 2 do? as for me, it makes no sense to wait for some 'divine' rescue or some higher offer for crescent, so ive already signed the take-over forms for all 3 broker accounts i have the crescent shares in [~1.18 crescent shares for 1 focus share] and lets hope that even if ive initially invested approx 3times as much money in crescent than in focus, the opportunities which the combined company doubtless provides (cashflow from 4 producing mines, huuuuge pipeline of exploration projects, solid financial position, etc) will show up in the share price soon :-). damn, in situations like that im happy ive invested my money in +100 mining companies and not only in 3 or 4. my sweet readers, u never know which company will be flooded by cash and which one by rain :cool:

btw, a simmilar 'next to nothing' take-over between 2 of my existing portfolio positions happened in 2008/2009 when continuum resources was eaten by fortuna silver. what abt the result? the new company managed to become one of my best performing assets and my cheapest fortuna purchase (from december 2008) multiplied already more than 10 times since then (in €uro terms again :-)

good luck my australian cannibals, good luck!

you still wanna go to hell? are u also 100% sure u will not turn back and run away when in front of that strange hole pictured above? fine, just ask me ... after all, there must be some reason why the focus/crescent directors gave their email addresses to me, u see?

anything else? coming soon or never 


addendum august 3, 2011: folks, in life nothing happens by accident, nothing! the gold price climbed up to $1,672 intra-day, the crescent share price reached the focus share price, my wife + myself were in the hell! 


well, there were soooo many folks in the centre of munich 2day and then such a bad, bad, bad luck happened to me! ive bumped into my crazy wife ... among 1.3 million people ... damn! there was no rescue 4 me, i had 2 take her 4 dinner, so we went into the cellar restaurant below the city hall, looked for a table and found it in the heaven & hell part of that strange place ... we sat down, looked at the paintings on the wall ... it was the hell! what a coincidence!
can u see my poor suffering soul over there? lol

Friday, July 22, 2011

#jaroquits trading ... after almost 7 years of almost daily effort ... and RESTARTS again ;-)

... for a time :-)
an empty account :-)

folks, ive sold my remaining micro trading positions orange juice + natural gas 2day (thursday) and withdrawn all money out of my trading account ... hell, what does it mean? well, my trading career is after almost 7 years over ... at least for a time :-) 

what abt my YTD and/or overall balance? well, ive started the year with 7,267 €uros and ended up with 13,265 on july 21th (ie withdrawn 9,000 and closed with 4,265 €). its a nice performance of 82.54% in 7 months, thats fine, of course ;-). nevertheless, im disappointed cos ive lost 4,000 €uros (or 55% in terms of performance) in 4 days in june basically on own overestimation + stupidity (more details below ~ 'lake garda'). well, im too lazy to look at my old statistics and even not sure if i would find all of them today, so i just can tell ya that my best trading year was 2010 with a profit of 347% and that ive made 31% in 2009  ... anyway, it was a succesful period in terms of $$ + experience in my life, so why to quit? many reasons out there:
  • the commodity exchanges changed their rules according margin requirements (eg in case of silver is the margin 8 times higher as it used to be in january (it is an increase by 700% my dear!), in case of wheat 3.33 times higher etc => i would need much much much more money deposited at my brokers account in order to hold the same line of stuff as usually
  • new rules require a new strategy (stop loss limits etc) which doesnt fit my personality i think
  • ive lost half my trading account in 4 days while at lake garda in italy ... leaving my account without stop limits + facing a real drawndown in commodities in that time + didnt look-up the results in the evenings => a sad combination of bad strategy & bad luck ... btw, i hope u did learn a lot by reading this lines without losing any money, didnt u?
  • my intuition told me the mining stocks market was/is close to its bottom => i liked to invest more $$ in mining stocks, so ive been looking for some fresh money 2 invest. cos there was no money in my wifes/childrens piggy banks at all (did they hide it somewhere else?) i decided to use my trading funds for that reason :-)
  • i have no time/energy to think abt new trades and/or strategy cos of my current 10 hours a day office job
  • my broker plans to close its old trading platform and to force all traders to switch to the new one ... i would rather switch to different broker cos of the sometimes really strange order executions instead, but there is the well known 'no time' issue again ...
  • im prolly even a little bit tired after sooo many years of almost daily connection to worlds financial markets 
  • trading 'costs' me too much time + attention which is missing for other things in life
  • there is still my mining stocks account :-)
  • etc etc etc
whats next? well, i have moved the remaining 4,265 €uros of my trading money to my investing account and heavily invested in mining stocks. cos the investing account is also a margin account and my 'old' mining stocks advanced like crazy the last 2 or 3 weeks, i could buy mining stocks for approx 11,000 €uros in july and going to add few more soon ... hell, hell, hell!! good luck, my dear stock market plays, good luck 

btw, is there any strategy in my stock market investing? till now only my old 'buy-and-hold' idea but im going to think abt a more sophisticated one on the weekend, promised!



my stock market strategy, is that YOU? well, i still believe we are in a hyper-inflationary phase, so it makes not much sense 2 sell commodity stocks, i think ... and there is also that stupid 28.x% tax on profits in germany.... buuuut also commodity stocks can go down a lot and they also did from april to june (approx 30% i woudda say), so what to do if my broker asks for more money to cover my current line of stocks? well, then and only then im going to sell stocks of companies which were performing badly or have imo limited potential for future (price) growth or both! lets write down few of them immediately and increase that list as time goes on in order to have one place of easy access when it is time to lower my stock market exposure quickly:
  • kinross gold
  • detour gold
  • gold fields
  • brent oil call warrant (strike price 90 usd, expires in november 2011 anyway)
  • silver standard resources
  • yamana gold
  • sultan corp.
  • osisko mining
  • barrick gold
  • jaguar mining
  • clifton star resources
  • legend intnl holdings
  • microsoft ... lets hope they're going to pay out their surplus cash (above $20b i think) to shareholders first 
  • MAN
  • archer daniels midland
  • agrium inc
  • penn west petroleum
  • ...

Friday, July 15, 2011

GRAN COLOMBIA GOLD (GCM.TO)

where did i steal that picture? here: http://www.grancolombiagold.com

investor lunch with gran colombia gold 2day ...
  • biggest colombian gold producer (120' ounces a year) and profitable, of course ... and there is some silver as well! not the typical absolute beginners this time, u see? thats fine with me, could be worse, of course
  • merged with medoro recently and thus prolly 'provided' a lot of uncertainity among its shareholders
  • these guys stock chart is a nightmare ~ from CAD 2 straight down to CAD 0.76 in 7 months
  • stupid me, i would prolly get few shares @ CAD 0.78 on 2days market opening but ive waited few minutes for mr. markets directive (up? down? sideways?) => as i saw that the shiny gold was turning up again i decided its time for my pilot buy => fire! well, i got my shares @ CAD 0.8 which is fine, im a long time investor, anyway
  • colombia is quite stable, safe and foreign investments friendly country nowadays
  • a beauty CEO! btw, she is only 41 and was a colombian ministry of s.th. before ... unfortunately, she didnt presented GCM in munich but will hopefully next time, OMD!
  • i liked the presentation a lot cos their geologist + mine operator jose oro (oro? aurum? or? zlato? GOLD!) was a completely different kind of person u woudda expect. it wasnt the professional promoter / salesman who could sell everything 2 everyone. his slow 'spanish' english was also cute 2 hear ... well, u think i could understand a word or two for the very 1st time, dont u? no comments on that even if its true :-) ... nevertheless, im not going to learn english any time soon so u have to suffer reading my gibberish much longer, my dear! lol ;-)
  • damn! ive seldom felt that comfortable and was sure the stuff jose spoke abt is 100% true. of course, i could be wrong, but my intuition liked the company + on top my wife told me in the morning not to waste any additional money on mining stocks => so ive rebelled again and bought few shares, subscribed 4 investor newsletter and gonna learn more abt the company in the future ~ the same procedure as usual, isnt it? of course, there will be some difficulties down the road till GCM reaches an yearly production of approx 600-700 ounces (planned in 2016) and esp a significant mine financing in 2013 needed, but i liked what jose told how theyre going 2 manage the upcoming steps, so what? btw, wanna learn a spanish proverb? thats a too big meat for a small cat! huuuuuh? well, that means GCM is going to focus on its 'company making' marmato open pit gold project 1st and advance its promissing mazamorra copper project later in the future ... sounds solid, doesnt it?
  • the gold price reached its new all-time-high @ $1593/oz today and my crazy mining portfolio is still approx 10% down YTD. thats just unbelievable! are there only scared idiots who tumble out there in the financial markets? damned hell! shoudda tell ya why i hate investors / traders?
  • what abt my other colombian fighters? batero gold is doing well, miranda gold not so well, antioquia gold poor and greystar resources was already shooted out of my portfolio (with a loss) as these jerks didnt get the mine permit recently ... could be better, much better, my dear .... oh heck! my wife is right :-(. but u dont gonna tell her, agreed?
  • go god bugs go!
  • any other insights? coming soon or never :-)
hasta la vista, colombia ....

Sunday, July 10, 2011

unfair western war against libya, iraq, afghanistan, syria, ...

british journalist lizzy phelan speak the truth about NATO war on libya and on africa (11 minutes, english with german subtitles):
link to youtube
~~~
a war affects all financial markets (fx, commodities, equities, bonds, ...), isnt it? well, lets help 2 stop 'our' neocolonial war against one of the leaders + biggest supporters africas, LIBYA, in a financial way ~ lets destroy fiat currencies ASAP :-)
source of the picture + great analysis of reasons for western interventions by cameroonian writer Jean-Paul Pougala here :-)

folks, its sooo sad what we ('developed' ~ 'industrialized' ~ 'democratic' ~ NATO nations) do to the whole world ;-(. all the bombs which kills innocent people in iraq, afghanistan, libya  :-( ... and why? do we need that? not at all! we have everything already, dont we? so why all that silly destruction?

btw, which country will be our next victim? any guess out there? iran, syria, north korea, algeria, venezuela, ... anyone else who doesnt follow our dictate? dont 'worry', it is not too difficult to 'invent' a reason for invasion for us, it hasnt be true anyway (iraq's non-existent weapons of mass destruction) ...

of course, there are also many folks in the west who dont support wars + that neocolonial politics and demonstrate in the streets against all that inhuman military actions and 'spending' of our tax money ... we should better help the people in poor countries, shouldnt we?

damn, there are 2 things i cant understand, my dear!
  1. the whole western industrialized world is bankrupt. how the hell can we afford to sent our soldiers around the globe and kill folks in distant countries most of us never been to? it is abt paper money, isnt it? if our money would be gold/silver and we had to earn + save it first, we wouldnt pay our sons (daughter as well?) to go away and become wounded or even killed out there? so lets reject the unfair paper money system, lets close our small dirty central banks, lets withdraw our money from our checking/savings accounts, lets buy gold + silver and step out from the financial casino out there ... easy, isnt it? 
  2. why the hell dont the 'weak' ~ 'developing' ~ 'terrorist' ~ whatever else we call them ~ nations UNITE and stop our easy going victories by destroying one 'enemy' after another ???
there are 2 soooo great articles ive read recently. it is not an easy stuff, of course ... enjoy it anyway and lets join all peaceful minded people all over the world together and stop the insane western wars and planet destruction! wanna join this club?

friends, what about UNITED STATES of WORLD? united by people, not by power elites and/or financial mafia, of course 


NO WAR !!! no money 4 wars ... no support 4 wars ... what abt love, peace, freedom, prosperity, protection of our environment, good life instead? 

Act as if what you do makes a difference. It does. ~William James
The biggest gap in your life is that between what you know and what you do. ~Steven Covey

addandum october 2011: the forme revolution leader muammar al-gaddafi was killed, whats next for libya?

easy! american + NATO democracy, of course ;-( ... just compare the huuuuge difference: libya without (left) and with 'democracy' ... folks, lets crash our fraudulent western financial-military system asap before the whole world looks like libya :-(
source: facebook

OMG, soooo sad ;-(

the real reasons for war? probably these ones:

or these ones?

libya few months later? here

Saturday, July 9, 2011

stupid €uro-peans, indeed ;-(

why are we europe-ans that stuuuuupid? why dont we (as a group) have own judgement, values, brave hearts etc? why do we always track what has asia, AMERICA, ... done before we decide? why the hell do we 'need' the american rating agencies, FED, government, USD and all other 'imports' to direct our way? why are especially we germans that stupid that we finance the whole 'old' continent without exerting any control / influence or at least set some rules in case future 'support' aka money is needed? why are we afraid to lead?

even in the stock market we dont have our own opinion, just look what happend to the german dax-index when the us market opened low (DAX vs. DJIA):

poor €uro, poor europe, indeed ;-(. well, i was prolly right in my former blog post, wasnt i?

why the hell are we €uro-peans that fearful + stupid? is it abt our genes?

Saturday, July 2, 2011

joined the wrong party 2day!

OMG, OMG, OMG! instead of the railway company's party which was prolly a children's event in the afternoon ive joined a private grill party (BBQ) of some local oldtimer car club .... well, i liked to see the huuuuuge 'always closed' green place next to our home and welcomed the railway companys open door event ... at 7 p.m. it was actually over but there was a grill (delicious lamb steaks!) + few strange folks + beeeeer + wine + champagne + aperol spritz + tiramisu + cars over there. what a cars! of course, after a while ive recognized im prolly at the wrong event, but i liked it, anyway ...

shoudda show ya few pics? btw, sorry for the poor quality of my mobile phones pictures, but the atmosphere + mood doesn't depend on pixels, does it?
railways ground ~ its a long time ago trains rolled over that meadow ...
it looks like a party!
inside
cars + arts = OMG°2
my favourite = de dion bouton 'landaulet' (france, 1908) ~ btw, de dion bouton was the biggest car producer in the world for a time ...
leaving the area  ~ going home, part 1
after the industry quits the nature comes back ~ going home, part 2
going home, part 3

life is good! the unexpected/unplanned component makes it even better ~ lets enjoy it :-)

ps: de dion bouton, some history from wikipedia: In 1900, de Dion-Bouton was the largest automobile manufacturer in the world, producing 400 cars and 3,200 engines that year; a factory was opened in Brooklyn, New York, making De Dion cars for the U.S. market. The company soon began producing engines and licenses for other automobile companies with an estimate of 150 makes using them. Production was so great, it proved impossible to test every engine; if it failed on the bench, it was simply disassembled. (Recall, every engine was being made by hand, for the assembly line had not yet been introduced.) By 1904 some 40,000 engines had been supplied across Europe. That year, de Dion's factory at Quai National (now Quai de Dion-Bouton), Puteaux, employed 1,300 and produced more than 2,000 cars a year, all also by hand. (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Dion-Bouton)

pps: even nicer de dion bouton cars (and steam vehicles) are in the german wikipedia site: http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Dion-Bouton