Friday, January 29, 2010

gold price in 2013? hmmm, maybe $8,000? (james turk)

addendum december 2012: outlook 2013 - 2015, enjoy :-)

~~~
james turk + me

every gold bug + every gold opponent knows we can't eat gold, of course not ... buuuut we could drink the wine from the gold bar case ... lol
james turk + peter boehringer

what abt a gold price of $8,000 in 2013/2014 and a dow-gold-ratio of 1 : 1? just crazy fantasy, you think? well, that's the number james turk (founder + CEO of www.goldmoney.com) gave barron's in an interview in 2003, i think (i'm too lazy to google the web right know 2 provide a link, so pls just believe it or not ~ it's up 2 u ... LOL). well, james repeated that yesterday in his great presentation on the germany's gold bugs club (DEG) meeting in one of the oldest and prolly the most famous munich's pub/restaurant hofbräuhaus yesterday. he thinks also abt 1 oz gold = $20,000 = DJIA if the FED continues to print money like crazy :)

btw, what's my guess? i think 1 oz gold could climb up to $5,000 within few years, of course only if the poor USD survives that long! why? well, there is already the american buffalo 1 oz gold coin with face value $50 (and a 1 oz silver 'american eagle' coin with the face value of $1) out there, you know? got it? at 1oz gold = $5,000 we just have to remove two zeros (hell, that's easy!) and we have the new gold price in new dollars $50. got it again? 1 oz gold = $20 ... few years later ... $35 ... few years later ... $50 ... damn! that's what i call continuity in fiscal policies!

any other ideas/topics?
  • gap between u.s. government spending and u.s. tax revenue getting bigger and bigger (exponential deficits!)
  • usa + europe are heading 2 argentina like hyper-inflation of deposit accounts
  • fear index
  • gold-silver-ratio
  • dow-gold-ratio (read my former blog post for more information here)
  • accumulate gold + silver instead of speculate with them (unless you're a gifted daytrader or the like)
  • gold + silver is still cheap + undervalued
  • bavarian food + bavarian beer + pretzels + much more :-)
folks, i will prolly enhance few details later, so let's close the blog post for now with 2 james turk quotes + few pics, ok?
  1. hope 4 the best, plan 4 the worst
  2. buy tangible assets instead of financial assets
peter boehringer (DEG chairman) speaking:
happy gold bugs #1
happy gold bugs #2
happy gold bugs #3
btw, that's me + my sister + her boyfriend (left 2 right), you know?

addendum june 27, 2010:
eof

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

siemens - the green giant?

what abt 2day's AGM (annual general meeting)? here the highlights, will prolly add some blah-blah later :)
  • great economic success despite the financial+economic crisis out there
  • very, very, very sustainable orientation on green products the world needs
  • biggest green company out there with EUR 23 billion in 'green' revenues (wind + solar energy, efficient light bulbs + energy transformation over long distances, electric cars + motorcycles, medicare, facility management, ...)
  • compliance / corruption issues after 2 or 3 years terminated
  • best stock in dax30 so far (+4.6% on a very weak general market conditions, closing quote +5.14%)
  • unchanged dividend
  • good outlook for the future despite tough economic situation thx 2 well positioned products + solutions for the expected 'green revolution' especially in the infrastructure field
  • the problems of the earth will not be solved in (political) conferences a la copenhagen, but through the development and adoption of sustainable, resource saving technologies a la solar energy project desertec in the sahara ... an area 0.3% of sahara's surface would provide enough energy for the whole world ... so unbelievable, i hope i got it right ... (and that would be clean energy!)
  • much more
electric motorcycle:
wind energy:
some food ...
... in the nosh temple :)
electric car:

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

all-time-high :-)


folks, my investment portfolio rocks like crazy! a new all-time-high :-)

well, 2 weeks ago (beginning of the year) was my balance of all open positions tiny +7.97% and it is +20.12% now! of course, it helped a lot that yesterday advanced my single biggest position scorpio mining huuuuuge +11.94% and the volume was more than twice the usual amount. no news, of course :-). any reason for that increase? hmmmm, my guess?

1.) these many stupid folks who were willing to sell their scorpio shares that cheap are out of the market
2.) these few folks who want to increase/enter their positions understood that there will never be a cheaper share price out there, so they started to buy at current price and bid it up a little bit :-)

ok, the remaining increase of my gold/silver/commodities portfolio is supported by increasing gold/silver prices, i think.

well, we are in the early phase of a HYPER-INFLATIONARY HARD ASSETS RALLY, i believe :-)

let's enjoy future development of my investment positions and let's hope my struggling micro trading account will also advance soon :-)

of course, there will be days on the way up where every commodity + every commodity stock + my portfolio will suffer like hell for some trading psychology related reason and that will be prolly also the days when i will update my armageddon 4 commodities blogpost, but i do not worry too much abt that. as long as the (inflationary) trend shows up i will ride the trend, so what?

hell, hell, hell! that investment stuff is soooooo damned easy

addendum, 01/20/2010: yesterday an all-time-high, 2day the 2nd armageddon! well, we never know what's next! hell, maybe that's also one of the reasons why i like the financial markets so much, isn't it? it would be boring if everything was easy

silver and lead -5%, gold -2.5%, agriculture approx -2%, oil -2.5% .... the most of my stocks are down 3% - 8%, my daily 'performance' is -2.91% ... and that's prolly just thx 2 my biggest single position scorpio mining, which is +0.0% today. well, my guess which i have posted few days ago that the most stupid folks sold their scorpio shares soooo cheap already is prolly true, as there was not much volume 2day ...

any cold comfort? yep! i could move the next company from my gold bugs fair's watch list into my portfolio as the soooo low limit order was hit today - welcome, moly mines (australia ~ molybdenum, copper, iron ore), welcome!

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

armageddon 4 commodity bugs ;o(

ugly days, ugly guys!
hell, the 1st crashy day for commodities this year, let's call that armageddon 4 commodity bugs ;o(
well, there were many of them last year (approx 10 days, i think), read abt one of these ugly days here ...

what's my idea 4 this blog post? hmmm, i'm going to count these nasty money losing days in 2010, so in december there will be some number out there :-). of course, it will be subjective and maybe i will also miss few of them (esp. when on holidays!), but i think it will help me 2 track + understand the markets, so what?

well, i plan to update that blog post regularly and maybe even post few comments later abt some specific issues on some of the crashy days like 2day, ok?

btw, i believe that we are in a early phase of hyper-inflationary rally, so my portfolio is gold + silver + commodities + these sectors' stocks long only, of course :-)

few of 2day's 'highlights' :o(
  • my portfolio -3.06%
  • corn -7.10%
  • wheat -7.63%
  • gold -2.11%
  • silver -2.36%
  • oil (wti) -2.41%
  • lead 5.53%
  • zinc -3.94%
  • DJIA -0.34%
  • nasdaq -1.30%
  • ...
  • btw, yesterday was orange juice -11%. crazy, isn't it? well, the most commodities rallied the last few weeks, that's prolly the overreaction into the another direction :-). do you still remember our homo sapiens financialis?
hell, is the world going 2 break apart? let's check the news, if any, which could cause such a downturn ,,,,

armageddon #2, 01/20/2010: yesterday an all-time-high, 2day the 2nd armageddon! well, we never know what's next! hell, maybe that's also one of the reasons why i like the financial markets so much, isn't it? it would be boring if everything was easy

silver and lead -5%, gold -2.5%, agriculture approx -2%, oil -2.5% .... the most of my stocks are down 3% - 8%, my daily 'performance' is -2.91% ... prolly just thx 2 my biggest single position scorpio mining, which is +0.0% today. well, my guess which i have posted few days ago that the most stupid folks sold their scorpio shares soooo cheap already is prolly true, as there was not much volume 2day ...

any cold comfort? yep! i could move the next company from my gold bugs fair watch list into my portfolio as the soooo low limit was hit today - welcome, moly mines (australia ~ molybdenum, copper, iron ore), welcome!

armageddon #3, 01/21/2010: no comments
armageddon #4, 01/26/2010: silver -4%
armageddon #5, 01/27/2010: silver -2.5%, natural gas -3.5%, zinc -5.07% ... all exchange traded commodities despite orange juice (+1.5%) are down, down, down ... so is my portfolio

.... folks, i think i have to stop that 'counter' as there are too many armageddons out there ... or find a new definition for my pain facing all that losses

armageddon #6, 02/04/2010: commodities collapsed on a much stronger usd (e.g. +1.37% against its paper buddy eur):silver -6.66%; gold -3.92%, DJIA -2.61%, my portfolio -3.70%,wti oil -5.53%, .copper -3.18%, ... many of my gold/silver companies (even the industry leaders) are down between 5% (barrick gold) and 12% (hecla miniong), it's just crazy :o(

btw, if i would have any money now, i would BUY all that fallen angels like 1st majestic silver, impact silver, hecla mining, orko silver etc. ... well, i've bought cardero resource corp. + oroco resource corp quite cheap in the last 2 days (btw, i could get cardero 5% cheaper) as i had some remaining money at my trading account and couldn't believe why do the folks sell cardero much, much, much cheaper than their recently received cash reserves and why do the folks sell oroco @ CAD 0.22 when the insiders/managers paid CAD 0.25 two weeks ago => ???

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

#jarobuys silver producer scorpio mining AGAIN + linear gold + halo resources + moly mines + oroco res. + cardero res. :o)



hell, scorpio (TSX: SPM) was already my biggest position, but i've added few more shares 2day. why? the company's news flow is soooooo great, they've just bought a gold project in nevada (well, there must be lot of gold, i think, just look at few of my nevada based companies like u.s. gold, miranda gold, vg gold, coral gold, ... here and of course, do not forget the big ones like barrick, newmont, etc!) ... got it?... they've bought => they have money => they do not need any stupid financing, they can afford to expand their growth from own resources ... well, i guess their silver-zinc-lead-copper 'nuestra senora' mine in mexico produces enough cash for this kind of acquisitions, you know?

what abt mr. market? well, the stock is despite the right now soaring gold/silver prices down -1.52% => ??? => what's your guess, who is right this time?

a) me
b) mr. market
c) both
d) none of us

hell, that investment stuff is soooooo easy

addendum 01/13/2010:
yabbadabbadooo! folks, i've welcomed the crashy gold/silver prices the last 2 days and increased my scorpio minig position @ CAD 0.67 and CAD 0.68 a lot (at least a lot from my newly @ lynx brokers opened account's size perspective ) + entered a small initial position in linear gold (LRR @TSX). well, i could get linear gold quite cheap! folks, is there a chap/girl out there who would explain the strange behavior of scorpio mining 2 me? hell, they didn't break apart like the most companies in their peer group did (abt 7-15% down in 2 days) ... but they also do not go up now as their peers do right now ... and it is not abt the volume as the volume remains avarage except 5th of january, where there was maybe 7 to 10 times the average volume i think ,,, => any ideas out there?


addendum 01/18/2010:
OMG! just 2 trading days later! scorpio is +11.94% today! the volume was approx twice the usual amount! no news, of course :-). my guess?
1.) these many stupid folks who were willing to sell their scorpio shares that cheap are out of the market
2.) these few folks who want to increase/enter their positions understood that there will never be a cheaper share price out there, so they started to buy at current price and bid it up a little bit :-)


btw, i have bought a small initial position in an additional canadian microcap, the gold-copper-zinc explorer halo resources (TSX: HLO). why? well, i couldn't longer watch how my limit order is not going to be fullfilled and the share price is climbing higher & higher ... so i have increased my limit from CAD 0.05 to CAD 0.1 today and got few shares @ CAD 0.095 ... damn! of course, it is expensive like hell and close to the yesterday's new 52 weeks high and the like and so on ... but you know what? i had no money a month ago as halo traded @ CAD 0.05 because i've waited for the 'capitalization' of my new brokerage account and also bought other stuff and also hoped halo will come back into its former (lower) trading range, so what? well, if the share price should fell to CAD 0.06 or CAD 0.05 sometime in the future i will prolly buy few more shares ... if not? hmmmmm, i will enjoy the development of my current position i think :-)


addendum 02/06/2010: folks, in the last crashy week there were 3 more low-low-low buy limit orders hit and so i could get moly mines (molybdenum in australia), oroco resources (gold in mexico. btw, i got the shares @ CAD 0.22 despite the recent private placement in favor of management & insiders @ CAD 0.25 per share) and increased my stake in cardero resources (iron ore in peru)

hell, hell, hell! that investment stuff is soooooo damned easy



addendum 04/06/2010: i was right, mr. market was wrong, wrong, wrong :-)

yabbadabbdoooo! scorpio mining (SPM) is +20.3% today (a new much much much higher 52 weeks high!), ten times the usual volume, no news, of course! the latest news release 2 days ago deflagrated without any impact cos the stock traded +0.0% the whole day after the earnings message came out => markets are inefficient, of course!

euphoria, pls never go away from me (to the next investor / money manager / hedge fund / trader or the like) ...

Monday, January 4, 2010

performance 2009 + market outlook & strategy 2010

folks, the last year is over! i'm telling you, just in case you haven't mentioned yet , did you?


what abt my performance in 2009? well, i have 2 speed up that boring collecting of data from my accounts, tomorrow there will be new quotes again ...


a) investment account, approx 95% of all liquid funds


well, i hold my stocks usually longer than a year, so there is no exact performance measurment possible, but you know what? i have opened a new account in july 2008, so there is an easy 2 compute performance on ALL NEW POSITIONS purchased since then possible. btw, it is very similar 2 the 2009 performance as i bought few stocks before the crash in october 2008 and then managed 2 add huuuge amounts of money (from my job's earnings perspective) in november/december 2008, february/march 2009, may 2009 and a little bit in other months if there were some money left on my general bank account. thx goodness, in most cases BEFORE the markets advanced . btw, the dividends are not included in my performance statistics. why not? 1st of all because i'm too lazy to select them from my account bills (remember, there are companies like goldcorp, penn west trust and others which pay monthly dividends), 2nd because the most junior gold/silver explorer companies don't pay any dividends, so by keeping my money invested in some fixed-rates-securities instead, i would earn more interest payments than i've got dividends in 2009
  • performance 2009 (from 07/2008) = +59.11%
more details? as always, the link 2 my portfolio incl. mission statement, blah-blah, jim rogers video, etc.



b) (micro) trading account, approx 5% of all liquid funds


well, here i have the exact numbers! btw, before the commodities crashed in the last 2 or 3 trading days in december, my trading profits were nearly twice as high! well, that's prolly because of my missing time + attitude, as i just keep my positions running and do not play much with limits, profit takings, etc., but i call that 'strategy', so it's ok!!! otherwise i would prolly overtrade, which could mean even a worse perfomance than this current 'capitalize-your-account-accordingly-and-buy-commodities-at-dips' approach, you know?
  • performance 2009 = +30.98%


c) my market outlook + corresponding strategy?


folks, it is an INFLATIONARY HARD ASSETS RALLY out there, therefore i'm going 2 continue playing my inflation invetsments [gold + SILVER + gold stocks + silverrrrr stocks + commodity stocks + special technologies stocks (lithium batteries, green energy, nanotechnology, ...) against my €uro savings] next year and longer! how long? at least till there will come a president/central banker a la paul volcker, who would really fight against inflation as volcker did ... OR till we will see the ugly state defaults + monertary reforms in the streets ... OR till the dow-gold-ratio tells me, the inflection point is there! btw, there was a great discussion in a former blog thread i've started earlier with charts abt all that paper money added 2 the system + many other reasons why i'm still soooo bullish on commodities ...


of course, you will think i'm just a lazy worthless piece of human trash as my wife soooo often tells me, which i really am, but you know, the world is not gonna 2 change fundamentally every day or even every year! so why 2 write in such strong commodities trend every year a new forecast? you see? well, let's use the old market outlook again (= idea recycling ~ blog post recycling!)

chakka! + let's create a happy new year

... few hours later ... hell, hell, hell! what a beginning of the year! right trend + right time + right strategy = a new (much, much, much higher) all-time-high in my invetsment portfolio (+5.17% right now) and nearly all-time high in my trading account (silver, nat. gas, o-juice, coffee, corn, wheat => approx +18%) => thx, mr. market, thx


... next few hours later ... hell, what a day 2day! both, all time high in my investment portfolio and best single day with +5.52% => watched the avatar movie with the best of all wives (great message! great pictures!) => pina colada + caipirinha in 'el diablo' (mex bar) => folks, i'm such a lucky alien :-)

addendum january 5th, 2010:
oh, my dear! ooooooorange juice +7.33% => i have 4 contracts => new all-time-high in trading account as well ... let's go 2 the weekly trader's club with all-time-highs in both, investment and trading account ...

did i tell already i like 2010 a lot? no? pls consider that as told right now

hell, euphoria is such a nice feeling!