Wednesday, December 31, 2008

2008 - what a crazy year behind us!

subprime crisis, recession, depression, barrack hussein obama, huuuuge bailouts on banks + car makers, huuuge amounts of money pumped into the markets, interest rate cut down to 0% + huuuuge additional mistakes of politicians and their small dirty central banks all over the world ... ToDo :o) ...

but will all these market manipulations & regulations help somehow? or will that help just few 'bailouted' bankers + other buddies of current governments? what if the consumption has some limitations? what if everyone already owns a car(s), flatscreen-TV(s), notebook(s), ipod(s), mobile phone(s), ... who in the hell should buy all these new products? what about solid economic policies like wealth based on work and savings instead of borrowing and spending? what about solid money supply (gold standard)? what about freedom and cooperation in the world instead of wars on terror, (oil-)wars in middle east, wars against democracy in western democracies, ... ?

let's hope for a better world and let's support forces which could make it happen, ok? btw, my absolute favorite in 2008 for a better world order was ron paul and his presidential candidature, but he couldn't beat mccain who become the candidate of the republican party. well, after the 8-year-long-republican-disaster under 'ruinator' george w. bush there was time for a change of the ruling party (i don't believe in change in u.s. economic politics) = time 4 barrack hussein obama (= my older posting).

current CFD account size €373

folks, i had to add some money again and my overall 'investment' into this trading adventure :o(. the costs of my trading study + the study of my soul since the very beginning in march 2007 reached € 3,333. what a nice number, isn't it?

well, i'm still trying to trade in the position-trader-mode even if the market seems to favor day-traders :o)). but as i know that i do not have enough time during the regular trading hours [and probably also not the appropriate intuition :-], so i do not really try day-trading now... well, i do often use a 5% trailing stop, but the huuuuge market volatility throws me too often out of my positions just to show me that the market moved in my anticipated direction later... well, i have to use stops anyway (compare my former lessons learned :o] as they help to protect my trading capital in case my opinion is absolutely wrong (btw, i would never, never, never believe that oil will fall from $150 to $35 in few months and without stops i would probably loose all my money while betting on its recovery starting from about $85, isn't it?)

open positions (all contracts are on the 'long' side :-):

2 x natural gas
1 x silver
1 x coffee
1 x orange juice
1 x sugar

... to do ... purchase date + price, stop limits, ...

Monday, December 29, 2008

silver long $10.87

... stop-loss-limit moved from initial $10.43 to $10.88 as silver jumped 3.16% to $11.36 today ... exit @ 10.88 on 01/07/2008 (http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2009/01/re-entry-in-silver-coffee.html)

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

there is no santa claus ....

foks,

in munich is our x-mas dinner already over, in usa you will probably start with the celebration soon :-)

i've checked ALL presents under the x-mas tree, there was not a single stock or ETF from my 27 positions long wish list which i've published already in this november blog-post :o). do you think santa claus had no time to read my wish list or did he even thought that it is not a good time to buy stocks as they will fall further next year? who knows that?

... even if i got no stocks, no gold/silver coins (therefore i bought few myself), there were 2 nice investing books under our x-mas tree! one i've got from the switzerland's subsidiary of abn amro (jim rogers - a bull in china) and the 2nd from my internet buddy from berlin (a book on financial crisis ... the world is going to break apart :o)

i wish you all nice holidays + health + best luck + satisfaction for the next year(s) :o)

greetings from munich,
j.

Monday, December 22, 2008

silver, sugar, o-juice, coffee, natural gas

... to do ... ... let's bet on commodity-strength based on dollar weakness, the current low commodity prices, the demand supply relationship, ...

margin coverage too low = positions liquidated

... to do ... good luck this time as the liquidation price was higher as my placed stop limits and the prices fell later further :o)

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

silver

to do (on the weekend:) ... publish trade ... silver long ....

interest rate 0%

these stupid governments + their small corrupt central banks are sooo unbelievable idiotic! how can they set the interest rate to ZERO? well, they did today as the FED + BOJ (bank of japan) cut their fund rates to 0%. i think, the ECB will follow soon :o(. what is the next step? a negative interest rate? will they pay the incompetent & greedy banks money in order to initiate them to borrow new money? as long as money is just a piece of paper or a number in some computer system they surely can do that. but let's wait till money is gold + silver again! let's wait for the coming monetary reform! well, what to do till then? let's launch a bank and also borrow all that MONEY FOR FREE! well, we will be not alone doing so as the last 2 u.s. investment banks (goldman sachs + morgan stanley) + american express + few other financial institutions changed their status to a 'normal' business bank already in order to participate in the crazy bailouts + to get all the money they want to from FED directly :o(

these politicians & central bankers are soooo stupid! welcome in the next round of inflationary horror! be prepared => buy as much gold + silver + oil + commodities as you can afford :o)). thx goodness, i've bought gold + silver + energy + commodity shares in the last 2 weeks with all money available! why? in 2009 (in germany) will all financial gains become tax related => let's buy stocks this year at these low, low, low prices and avoid that tax forever !!!


how liked the markets that sick zero-rate-decision? they liked it a lot:

  • silver +6,02%
  • gold +2,21%
  • DJIA +4,20%
  • s&p500 +5,14%
  • nasdaq100 +5,21%
  • eur/usd +2,62% ... => IMHO it is just the beginning of the end of the USD => good-bye USD! did u recognize the slight but important difference to 'good buy'? yes? well, the usd is not a good buy at all! if the u.s. government/FED will not stop creating money like crazy, the usd will join all other former paper currencies on their small dirty currency cemetery soon :o). good-bye our current paper-money-system, hello & welcome our next gold/silver based monetary system :o)

Friday, December 12, 2008

coffee

to do (on the weekend:) ... limit order filled ... coffee long ...

Thursday, December 11, 2008

orange juice

to do (on the weekend:) ... document open trade ... orange juice long ...

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

natural gas

item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
trade type--------: long
order type--------: market buy / limit sell
entry date--------: 12/10/2008, 20:29
entry price-------: 5.71
initial stop loss--: 5.41 => 5.18 => 5.55
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: natural gas is in my opinion so unbelievable cheap! and the cold winter months are already here! damned hell, do i really need some other reason for that trade? no, i do not!!! pls, do not tell me that oil fell another few bucks to its lowest level in the last 4 years. why? because i'm not blind + i can see it myself! nevertheless, let's bet some money on my opinion, ok? my stop loss limit should protect my remaining capital if i'm wrong :o)
lessons learned: ... let's ALWAYS use stop limits


item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
trade type--------: long
order type--------: market buy / limit sell
entry date--------: 12/09/2008, 23:25
entry price-------: 5.69
initial stop loss--: 5.38
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: natural gas is in my opinion so unbelievable cheap! and the cold winter months are already here! damned hell, do i really need some other reason for that trade? no, i do not!!! pls, do not tell me that oil fell another few bucks to its lowest level in the last 4 years. why? because i'm not blind + i can see it myself! nevertheless, let's bet some money on my opinion, ok? my stop loss limit should protect my remaining capital if i'm wrong :o)
lessons learned: ... let's ALWAYS use stop limits

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

crazy monday! no comments ...

after the worst unemployment data since decades (last friday, more than 500,00 new jobless folks in the usa, worst data for 34 years!) rallied the stock markets on friday => ???

DAX +7,63%
DJ Euro Stoxx +8,76%
Dow Jones Industrial Average +3,46%
S&P500 +3,84%
NASDAQ100 +4,01%
Nikkei225 +5,20%

CBOE OIL INDEX +6,18%
Silver Spot +4,80%
Gold Spot +1,82%
Palladium Spot +8,46%
Platinum Spot +3,55%

Thursday, December 4, 2008

€104 lost today, all positions liquidated ;o(

hi folks, my margin buffer was to low for my open positions => all positions liquidated by my broker => it is sad ;o((, but IT'S CORRECT. otherwise i could even lose more than i have on securities there :o) => lesson learned (forever!):

I WILL ALWAYS USE STOPS !!!

folks, u can look-up in a dictionary what ALWAYS means, will u? u can be sure that it means EVERY TIME and it does not mean sometimes yes and sometimes not :o))

current account size: € 138. minimum margin allowed = €200 => broker closed all open positions. this time is the liqudation value of my positions about the same as the current market value of them. there were also situations in the past where the liqudation value was much higher than the daily close value as the market fell further dramatically => so we never know where the bottom is => we have to use stops to protect our trading capital => in the long term it should save more money as we would probably lose through 'false' breaks with following movement in our anticipated direction :-))

my positions on that sad thursday:

item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market buy / limit sell
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 12/02/2008, 0:48
entry price-------: 6.56
initial stop loss--: 6.26
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/04/2008, 15:37
exit price---------: 6.26
profit (loss) in %-: (4.57)
profit (loss)------: ($30)
reason why + strategy: natural gas was probably the only real asset (do not bore me with bonds!) which went UP on this crash monday! this must be a sign of strength!!! in my opinion is gas still so unbelievable cheap! and the cold winter months are already here! damned hell, do i really need some other reason for that trade? no, i do not!!! pls, do not tell me that oil fell another few bucks to its lowest level in the last 4 years. why? because i'm not blind + i can see it myself! nevertheless, let's bet some money on my opinion, ok? my stop loss limit should protect my remaining capital if i'm wrong :o)
lessons learned: my opinion was wrong, my stop limit protected me against a much higher loss. let's use stop limits ALWAYS :o)


item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: limit buy / liquidation sell
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 12/02/2008, 0:48
entry price-------: 6.06
initial stop loss--: NONE :o((
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/04/2008, 17:18
exit price---------: 5.98
profit/loss in %--: - 1.32%
profit/loss-------: - 8 $
reason why + strategy: i've believed that natural gas was sooo cheap and bought additional position (limit order) even if my account was already to low for new positions and there was also no margin buffer there. well, mr. market had some other opinion about the price development than me :o(
lessons learned: my opinion was COMPLETELY wrong, the missing stop limit could cause even worse damage to my account as the price fell after the liquidation further! let's use stop limits ALWAYS :o)


item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market buy / liquidation sell
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 0:48
entry price-------: 6.73
initial stop loss--: NONE :o((
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/04/2008, 17:18
exit price---------: 5.98
profit/loss in %-: - 11.14%
profit/loss------: - 75 $
reason why + strategy: i've believed that natural gas was sooo cheap, but the market didn't :o(
lessons learned: my opinion was COMPLETELY wrong, the missing stop limit caused so much damage in my account! let's use stop limits ALWAYS :o)


item--------------: coffee
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market buy / liquidation sell
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 10:06
entry price-------: 114.3
initial stop loss--: NONE :o((
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/04/2008, 17:18
exit price---------: 106.8
profit (loss) in %-: (6.56%)
profit (loss)------: ($75)
reason why + strategy: i've believed that coffee was sooo cheap, but the market didn't :o(
lessons learned: my opinion was COMPLETELY wrong, the missing stop limit caused so much damage in my account! let's use stop limits ALWAYS :o)


item--------------: sugar
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market buy / limit sell
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 10:05
entry price-------: 11.74
initial stop loss--: NONE :o((
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/04/2008, 17:18
exit price---------: 10.90
profit (loss) in %-: (7.15%)
profit (loss)------: ($84)
reason why + strategy: i've believed that sugar was sooo cheap, but the market didn't :o(
lessons learned: my opinion was COMPLETELY wrong, the missing stop limit caused so much damage in my account! let's use stop limits ALWAYS :o)


item--------------: orange juice
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market buy / limit sell
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 15:07
entry price-------: 77.3
initial stop loss--: NONE :o((
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/04/2008, 15:37
exit price---------: 72.7
profit (loss) in %-: (9.4%)
profit (loss)------: ($46)
reason why + strategy: i've believed that orange juice was sooo cheap (at 5 years lows!!!), but the market didn't :o(
lessons learned: my opinion was COMPLETELY wrong, the missing stop limit caused so much damage in my account! let's use stop limits ALWAYS :o)

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

toronto60 long (again:)

item--------------: toronto60
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop loss limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 12/02/2008, 16:28
entry price-------: 510.3
initial stop loss--: 491.0
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/03/2008, 14:30
exit price---------: 488.5 (gap down)
profit (loss) in %-: (4.3%)
profit (loss)------: (CAD 21.8)
reason why + strategy: in my opinion will the stock market in general and the canadian commodity-based market in particular go up a lot => let's bet on that!
lessons learned: my opinion was (in the short term) wrong, the index fell after my stop limit just 3 points deeper :o((, then recovered a little bit, is now @ 499.9, i still believe it will go up significantly, my account is (again) too small to open a new position and will probably be liquidated tomorrow (margin buffer just about 38 €uros), but maybe i will have some luck and sugar / gas / coffee / o-juice will go up from the start :o))

Monday, December 1, 2008

stop loss limits, where have you been today?

next crashy monday!

watch + listen to meridith whitney (oppenheimer & co.):



gold -6.18%
silver -10.23%
DJIA -7.70%
s&p500 -8.93%
brent oil -11.79%
corn -5.16%
...
well, i've had just 1 stop loss limit in the market ;o(. why just one, jaro, WHY??? even despite huge slippage saved this stop limit some money as the stock market is much deeper now :-)


item--------------: toronto60
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop loss limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 10:05
entry price-------: 522.4
initial stop loss--: NONE ;o(
new stop-loss----: 548.0 (i.e. 3% bellow currents price:)
exit date---------: 11/25/2008, 15:30
exit price---------: 533.7 (=> a huge -7.41% gap down today!)
profit (loss) in %-: 2.16%
profit (loss)------: CAD $ 11.3
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is this canadian stock index so unbelievable cheap + full of commodity companies, so let's take a bet on its recovery :o)
lessons learned: my opinion was wrong, the market crashed again (manic mondays!), the stop-loss-limit avoided the switch of this winning trade into a loss, a small profit out of this trade is still there :o)


item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 12/02/2008, 0:48 => damned early / freaking late?
entry price-------: 6.56
initial stop loss--: 6.26
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: natural gas was probably the only real asset (do not bore me with bonds!) which went UP on this crash monday! this must be a sign of strength!!! in my opinion is gas still so unbelievable cheap! and the cold winter months are already here! damned hell, do i really need some other reason for that trade? no, i do not!!! pls, do not tell me that oil fell another few bucks to its lowest level in the last 4 years. why? because i'm not blind + i can see it myself! nevertheless, let's bet some money on my opinion, ok? my stop loss limit should protect my remaining capital if i'm wrong :o)
lessons learned: ...