Sunday, November 30, 2008

current account size € 415

folks, i had to add some money (€ 276) again after i've got about 50 margin calls a week ago (i.e. 1 per hour :). as i didn't respond and didn't throw additional money into the 'fire', my broker liquidated my positions after the minimum margin level was broken down (THAT'S CORRECT :-). what does it mean? well, my overall 'investment' into this trading adventure (or my personal market study + the study of my soul?) since the beginning in march 2007 reached € 3,003. what a nice number, isn't it?

current positions:

item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 12:33
entry price-------: 6.73
initial stop loss--: NONE, gas is soooo cheap already, i don't believe it can fall much bellow $6, so let's try my luck without stop limit this time. btw, this position is small enough, it shouldn't hurt my portfolio too much if i'm wrong :o). initial stop loss should always be filled, but let's tell that the (larry williams') 60-tonnes-lorry-event today :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is natural gas so unbelievable cheap that i will enter this position immediately, even if oil is still damned cheap and €uro still weak compared to usd
lessons learned:


item--------------: orange juice
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 15:07
entry price-------: 77.3
initial stop loss--: NONE ... ;o( ...
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is orange juice so unbelievable cheap, let's take a bet on its recovery :o)
lessons learned:


item--------------: coffee
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 10:06
entry price-------: 114.3
initial stop loss--: NONE ... ;o( ...
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is orange juice so unbelievable cheap, let's take a bet on its recovery :o)
lessons learned:


item--------------: sugar
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 10:05
entry price-------: 11.74
initial stop loss--: NONE ... ;o( ...

new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is orange juice so unbelievable cheap, let's take a bet on its recovery :o)
lessons learned:


item--------------: toronto60
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 10:05
entry price-------: 522.4
initial stop loss--: NONE ... ;o( ...
new stop-loss----: 548.0 (i.e. 3% bellow currents price:)
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is this canadian stock index so unbelievable cheap and full of commodity companies, so let's take a bet on its recovery :o)
lessons learned:

Friday, November 28, 2008

extra x-mas salary => shopping fever ;-)

yesterday 'arrived' my salary on my account and to be honest a like novembers a lot! why? there is an 120% additional 'x-mas' component included => i've invested about 1/2 of that extra money & increased my share in few of my existing positions + bought also stocks of 3 new companies via my buy-and-hold investment account ...

------------------------------------
my x-mas shopping list :o)):
------------------------------------
11/27/2008
  • amerigo resources (Cu, Mo)
  • cardero res. (Fe - they've sold their major peruvian project to chinese investors recently for a multiple of company's market capitalization => damned hell, if they are not going to fire cash in the coming cold winter days in their canadian office and/or will not start to throw money out of a window it should be a super-duper investment for a looong, looooong time !!!)
  • endeavour silver (Ag)
  • ETF world water (H2O)
  • mag silver (Ag - new)
  • penn west energy trust (oil, gas - monthly dividends :o)
  • scorpio mining (Pb, Zn, Ag, Au)
  • silver standard res. (Ag - new)
  • western geopower (geothermal energy - new)
12/01/2008
let's move some positions from my wish list 2 my portfolio (new funds detected :). very bad timing today as i could buy pan american silver 16.5% cheaper & novagold 19.75% cheaper in the afternoon as the market crashed in the usa from the very beginning (DJIA -7.70%, silver -10.23%, s&p500 -8.93%). cold comfort: my limit order for rochester was filled @daily low! after its rescue through the recent joint-venture agreement should this investment return nice profits :-)
  • novagold (Au - speculative! just 4 hardcore gamblers or people who can afford to risk some money! this highly sympathetic company is currently highly bankruptcy-endangered :o()
  • pan american silver (Ag - new)
  • rochester res. (Ag)
12/02/2008
  • commerce resources (tantalum, niobium - new)
  • first majestic silver (Ag - folks, they sell silver coins through their homepage for end-consumer-physical-stuff-prices, not for the manipulated(?) comex-paper-prices! clever! maximum clever!)
  • fortuna silver (Ag)
  • hecla mining (Ag, Au since 1891 - new, they ask some rotative commodity related questions @ their website :-)
12/03/2008
  • western potash (potash - new)
12/04/2008
  • allianz (insurance - new, munich!)
  • archer daniels midland (agriculture - new)
  • ConocoPhillips (oil - new)
  • man (automotive - new, munich!)
  • miranda gold (Au, share price probably bellow company's cash reserves, but it wasn't the bottom anyway ;o()
  • siemens (infrastructure, electronics, my ex-employer :o] - new, munich!)
folks, do u know why are there so many munich-based companies on my shopping list today? well, if the economic crisis will expand next year + i will not have enough money for a warm meal, then i will go to the anual stockholder meetings of my 4 munich companies (bmw, siemens, allianz, man) + get some food + drinks 4 free! what a clever idea, isn't it? let's find some food 4 the remaining 361 days of the year also! ok, 1st let's buy linde + munich re + wacker next week ;-)
12/05/2008
  • energold drilling (mining equipment (rigs) - new)
12/08/2008
  • amerigo resources (Cu, Mo)
  • bralorne gold mines (Au)
  • cardero res. (Fe)
  • freegold ventures (Au)
  • minera andes (Ag, Au - new)
  • nanostart (nanotechnology - i do believe that nanotechnology is [besides to commodities & (renewable) energy] one of the favorite industries AFTER the 2008-financial-crisis! do u still believe in banks & car makers?)
  • newmont mining (Au - new)
  • orko silver (Ag)
  • penn west energy trust (oil, gas - monthly dividends :o)
  • scorpio mining (Pb, Zn, Ag, Au)
  • silver wheaton (Ag)
12/09/2008
  • paramount gold + silver (Au + Ag)
12/10/2008
  • globex mining (Au, Zn, Cu - exporer & producer & royalty company with a portfolio of about 70 projects which are optioned to numberless JV partners)
12/10/2008
  • novagold (Au - folks, folks, folks! i thought (dreamt?) at night that this highly sympathetic + currently highly bankruptcy-endangered company would release some news about its rescue. well, i've opened their website few times in the morning + hoped i could buy some super-duper cheap shares in germany before the canadian market opens. there were no news so i decided not to enhance my just few days ago increased risky position + didn't take shares for €0.37 => i'm such a stupid idiot! with the opening of canadian market shoot that stock within minutes 72.31% higher! just rumours or some insider buying? i've bought that stock few minutes later on a temporary price correction for €0.57 (which is 54% higher than the daily low in germany), so my position including commission quotes near the daily close in canada => todays increase +52,31% WITHOUT ANY company and/or industry related NEWS :o). well, the stock is still very cheap, do not forget that the all-time-high from 2007 was CAD 20.13 (!!). of course, it was before all that mumbo-jumbo with barrick gold (hostile take-over offer @ CAD 16) + teck cominco's project cancellation @galorne creek + environmental regulations + management mistakes + financing issues ...
  • rubicon minerals (Au - new, perfect timing here! i bought in germany before the canadian market opened bellow the fair canadian price => rob mcewen's rubicon soared 18.75% today)
12/15/2008
  • google (software - new, let's invest some money in that highly innovative company which also provides this blog for free and even allows me to earn few cents/bucks through included advertising links :o)
  • mexican silver mines (Ag - folks, this explorer doesn't explore any longer! why? well, the management believes that in current market state it is cheaper to buy complete projects from struggling competitors than to spend cash on exploration of own properties. hmmmm, an interesting strategy, isn't it?) ~ addendum 11/01/2010 ~ my 1st 20-bagger  ~ OMG, OMG, OMG! crazy mining business! bought @ €0.055 on december 15th, 2008 ~ 2days quote? €1.105 which is a (tax free!) profit of +1,909.09% ~ well, the company calls itself rio alto mining and is an ongoing peruvian gold producer these days :-) => OMG again! ~ uptrends are soooooooo delightful 
  • rio tinto (base metals - new, crazy dividend 9.87% (or just 6.31% because of an error on my broker's website yesterday?). nevertheless, i'm starting to love market corrections as they allow me to buy highly valuable companies soooo cheap!)
12/17/2008
  • acadian mining (Zn, Pb, Au)
  • impact silver (Ag)
  • linde (chemistry, machinery - new, munich!)
  • rio tinto (base metals)
  • source exploration (Ag - new, probably about 50% cheaper than the original 'management' price of it's founder and former sabina silver director abraham drost [~ CAD 0.12 ?]. sounds good? in today's crazy markets it still can become better: let's look @ company's website => the current market capitalization CAD 2.3 million is BELLOW the WORKING CAPITAL of 2.4 millions. will u buy all shares & then plunder its cash desk? any additional comments on current financial markets needed? no?
12/29/2008
  • acadian mining (Zn, Pb, Au)
  • petaquilla minerals (Au)
  • xstrata (commodities - new)
12/30/2008
  • cbh resources (Ag + base metals Zn, Pb, Cu)
  • crescent gold (Au in Au-stralia :)
01/02/2009
  • aquila res (Zn)
  • bhp billiton (base metals - new)
  • Burcon NutraScience (proteins, biotech - new)
  • coral gold (Au)
  • vg gold (Au)
01/05/2009
  • novagold (Au - the company is hopefully rescued as they've found an investor who invested $60 millions last week. that's great but they've diluted the existing shares by 30% today and through warrants agreement (if exercised) even to approx. 45% in the future => the poor 'old' shareholders! folks, a day or two later were also all warrants executed, thus got novagold 75 millions combined. let's hope the management will avoid any new financial mistakes and protect the new liquidity + meet all company's requirements, so that there will be never, never again a plunge of the share price by 40-50% as it was the case at least 3 times in the last 2 years)
  • scorpio mining (Pb, Zn, Ag, Au)
01/06/2009
  • southern silver (Ag)
01/07/2009
  • mag silver (Ag)
  • uc resources (Ag)
01/08/2009
  • continuum res. (Ag)
  • greenshift corp. (clean technologies 4 efficient use of natural resources)
  • sterling mining (Ag - since 1903, i bet they will survive the financial crisis & the share price will recover from its current bankruptcy-related level :o)
01/16/2009
  • u.s. silver (Ag)
01/19/2009
  • novagold (Au)
  • u.s. gold (Au)
01/20/2009
  • tara gold (Au)
==> game over ;o(( => all available money invested, even parts of my assets of last resort! i think my wife would kill me if i would take some more money :o)). does my invest-all-available-funds-strategy make any sense? i believe yes, it does. why? with the beginning of 2009 are in germany all financial gains tax related (tax flat rate 25%) => let's buy stocks in 2008 at these low, low, low prices + avoid that tax forever :o))
=> €12,824 = 10,651 new €uros + €2,173 from sale of my silver ETFs (~300 oz) invested
=> why did i sell my silver? a) i'm not sure the ETFs have enough physical silver for all its investors actually + b) i still have few coins c) in a worst case scenario like e.g. monetary reform would the governments probably abolish the private ownership of gold & silver again, so i would never get my precious metals out of any ETF vault when i needed them mostly + d) i'm sure that gold/silver stocks are currently massive undervalued so let's bet on their return to fair values => btw, i expect that the share prices of most of my recently purchased junior explorer companies will increase minimum 5- to 7-fold in the next 1-2 years and the big players like newmont + pan american silver + hecla will at least double in that period => if you looked at their charts and especially at the loss of 70% of their value in october/november [mostly without any rational reason] u will probably understand why i'm sooo bullish on them now :o)).
why sooo many sooo small positions? explorer stocks are risky enough (just look @ chart of any of them + especially @ novagold, so u will understand why i prefer to buy small packages (about 200 €uros each) in huge number of risky companies + pay €10 commission per trade than to build bigger portions of few risky companies (e.g. about €1,000 each as in 2007 or about €3,000-4,000 like in the years 2005-2006). btw, my biggest original purchase were 2,300 shares of rob mcewen's u.s. gold with more than 9,000 €uros and today are the remaining 1,800 shares worth just about €1,000 :o((. well, i shouldn't put all eggs in one basket! a big position in a particular stock/commodity doesn't protect my capital from losses :o)) ==> GOOD LUCK MY LOVELY BUY-AND-HOLD-THROUGH-ALL-THIS-FINANCIAL-MESS COMMODITY POSITIONS !!!
02/05/2009
btw, how does my portfolio looks like after that shopping orgy? well, check yourself! the userID is jaro and the password is secret ;-) ... folks, i.e. 'secret' !!!
(to learn more about jaro's intergalactic financial enterprizes (JIFE++) visit http://jarogruber.de/ and jump to the JIFE++ site :-). nevertheless, a short overview:
JIFE++ investment philosophy: gold + silver + energy (oil, gas, solar, wind, ...) + junior explorer stocks + commodities + ETFs + warrants + cash + ... even if the JIFE++ fund is free to invest in any financial instrument, it is not intended to invest in bonds, treasuries, CFDs, currencies, ...
JIFE++ risk category: HIGH. why? because there are also many junior explorer companies contained which do not generate any cash-flow yet, do not pay dividends, ... please consider also the high volatility in commodity sector.
JIFE++ upside potential: HIGH. why? see investment philosophy + risk category ;-))
JIFE++ contact: jaro.gruber@gmx.de
the bravest of the brave: JIFE++ investors)

folks, do u believe in santa claus? yes? me to! here we go ;-):
------------------------------------
=> my x-mas wish list :o)
------------------------------------
folks, my wife asked her subconscious mind today (=12/14/2008) which stocks to buy! her answers are marked bellow, but don't forget that stocks of highest desire i've already bought in the last few weeks :O). that are additional favorites and/or companies where i would like to increase my stakes :-)

  • acadian mining (Zn, Pb, Au) ... maybe
  • agnico-eagle mines (Au, platinum, rhodium - new) ... no
  • barrick gold (Au - new) ... no
  • bhp billiton (base metals - new) ... yes
  • bravo venture (Au)
  • Burcon NutraScience (proteins, biotech - new) ... YES
  • coral gold (Au) .... YES
  • ETF new energy (renewable energy)
  • ETF world water (H2O)
  • first majestic silver (Ag)
  • fortuna silver (Ag)
  • franco nevada (royalty, private equity - new) ... maybe
  • goldcorp (Au - new)
  • google (software) ... yes
  • impact silver (Ag)... yes
  • linde (chemistry) ... yes
  • MAG silver
  • mexican silver mines (Ag) ... yes
  • microsoft (software - new) ... ok, but novagold should perform better
  • münchner rück (insurance - new) ... no
  • novagold ... YES
  • pan american silver (Ag)
  • petaquilla minerals (Au)
  • rio tinto (base metals) ... yes
  • sabina silver (Ag, Zn)
  • source exploration (Ag) ... yes
  • tribune fpo (Au - new)
  • u.s. gold (Au)
  • vg gold (Au)
  • XSTRATA (commodities)


do u think i believe strongly that the commodities will rally again soon and so will commodity explorers, (junior) producers and the like, don't u? well, that's my hedge against the inflation monster!

what about the stock markets? i think they will rally also because of the HUGE amounts of paper/electronic money added into financial circle through the corrupt, incompetent and dishonest governments and their small dirty central banks all over the world :o((

=> welcome to the INFLATIONARY stocks and assets price rally !
=> welcome to the crack-up boom !!
=> welcome to state controls + regulations + swindling democracy all over the freaking world !!!
=> welcome to the kondratieff winter :o((

questions of the day: how long could that false boom last? when will we see not just a default of some 'unimportant' nations (iceland, hungary, ukraine, pakistan => 4 countries in the last few weeks!), but also a bankruptcy of some important western economy (US, UK, germany, italy, spain, france...)? when will that crappy paper money system fail? when will a major monetary reform arrive on planet earth again? do u have enough gold + silver ALREADY ???

=> as always: do not forget to protect yourself and your family against all that financial mess out there => buy as much gold, silver, oil, agriculture, energy... @ these low, low, low prices as u can afford and you will be very, very glad. or don't and u won't ;o))

=> this investing stuff is sooooo easy !!!

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

jaro, stop daytrading for a while !!!

1 x toronto60 (long)

2 x DJIA daytrading trials with 2 small losses (€ 22 combined) as the anticipated move up didn't come directly after my market entry but after some volatile ups and downs (just usual market noise, not any special events) after my stop loss limits were hit. well, that's trading ('cut your losses and let the profits run') + it is not bad at all :o) ... BUT it is too dangerous as there is not an appropriate money coverage on my account in order to keep all current positions :o((

-----------------------------------
a vicious dialogue:
-----------------------------------
my sanity: damned hell! jaro, stop daytrading for a while!
me: why?

my sanity: becuase otherwise you will demolish your account AGAIN !!!
me: well, ok, ... but ... for how long?

my sanity: well, till there is enough money on your trading account and you can 'afford' also few losses in a row without smashing your whole account through margin calls and liquidation of your remaining (commodity) positions AGAIN !!! will u?
me: well, yes, hmmm ... u are right, I WILL TRY IT !!! promised ;-)

commodities again :o)

my trades: orange juice, sugar, natural gas, coffee ... to do ...

folks, i'm sure that larry williams would lynch me or rewrite his book or both! why? because i've set no stops today :o(. well, the current levels are soooo low that with a stop limit,which would give the market some space to 'breathe' (about 10-15% from current price?) i would be both below the rational price levels and below the liquidation limit (approx. 200 €uros) of my micro account ...

the market and the margin call / liquidation 'service' of my broker should decide about my positions tomorrow :o)). btw, if i'm wrong and 'my' markets would fall further i would lose about the half of my €307.58 account. so let's take that risk today and try to 'find' some few hundreds €uros for my trading account to have some more realistic chance to succeed in the markets without wipe-outs through the smallest market move in the 'wrong' direction :o))

(sorry larry, but you can be sure i didn't forget your lessons and i will also not ignore your advice from your very last sentence: ALWAYS USE STOPS. let's say it is the '60 tonnes truck event' today, ok?)



btw, what about the relevance of your account size? watch interview with larry williams here ...

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

larry williams' book finished

folks, i've finished reading larry williams' SUPER-INTERESTING & FUNNY-TO-READ & HELPFUL 4 MY TRADING & REALLY-GREAT BOOK 'long-term secrets to short-term trading' today, i hope it will improve my trading results significantly :o))

well, the last thursday was really the market bottom in commodities + stocks (at least temporary :) ... well, the margin call 'arrived' and my positions were liquidated as my account was too small for thursday's intraday move-down :o(( ... except orange juice are all other positions (sugar, gas, coffee) much, much higher today :o(, ... my new funds didn't arrive today and i expect them tomorrow which is soooo late as i've missed the huuuuuge market recovery ... especially my no. 1 trading item (silver) which was stopped out @9.24 last week, reached 10.60 today ... but without me :o(((

well, luck is also a (significant) part of the game :o))

Saturday, November 22, 2008

margin call 1 day before the turn-over of commodity markets?

to do: ... my 'trades' .... hmmm, i.e. my broker's liquidation orders ... orange juice, gas, sugar, coffee ...

lessons learned: ... my account was too small for thursday's intraday move down :o((

Monday, November 17, 2008

G-20, natural gas, silver, ... commodity prices unbelievable low ...

G-20 instead of G-7 or G-8? the brasilian and chinese presidents besides g.w.bush @ a lunch table instead of his devoted servants from UK, poland, france, germany? hmmm ... :o)) ... did actually someone recognize that there is more needed when they want to 'fight' the 2008-financial-crisis than just rhetorical actions? or even that they need nations with some financial reserves instead of bankrupt western industrial morons and their small dirty central banks? will they (again!) print huge amounts of paper money or just borrow it from countries they still have any?

however, let's buy some commodities before the inflation will eat us alive :-))

item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/16/2008, 23:21 that's early! it's monday, 00:21 in munich :-)
entry price-------: 6.39
initial stop-loss--: NONE, gas is soo cheap already, i don't believe it can fall much bellow $6, so let's try my luck without stop limit this time (btw, this position is small enough, it shouldn't hurt my portfolio too much if i'm wrong :o) ... must always be filled :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is natural gas so unbelievable cheap that i will enter this position immediately, even when oil fell a little bit, €uro fell a little bit against usd, ...
lessons learned:


item__________: silver
units__________: 1
order type______: market
trade type______: long
entry date______: 11/17/2008, 01:50, it's late, i'm gonna sleep :o)
entry price_____: 9.64
initial stop-loss_: 9.24 ... ... ... ... must always be filled :-)
new stop-loss___:
exit date_______: 11/17/2008, 13:40
exit price_______: 9.24
profit (loss) in %_: (4.15%)
profit (loss)_____: (0.4 => $ 40)
reason why + strategy: silver is sooo cheap, the financial crisis so present, let's bet on rational human brains, ok?
lessons learned: it's sooo pity, the stop was hit, the daily low was 9.18, i would like to enter the market again at current price 9.30, but i can't afford to lose money too often on additional trials, my 'bottom fishing' limit order is @ 8.78, do u think it will be filled this week? or do u rather think we will never see silver sooo cheap in our lives?


item--------------: orange juice
units--------------: 1
order type--------: limit (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/17/2008, 15:18
entry price-------: 82.5
initial stop-loss--: NONE, orange juice is soo cheap already, i don't believe it can fall much bellow 80 cents, so let's try my luck without stop limit this time (btw, this position is small enough, it shouldn't hurt my portfolio too much if i'm wrong :o) ... ... must always be filled :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is orange juice so unbelievable cheap :-)
lessons learned:


WHY COMMODITIES? in my opinion are the most commodities (oil, natural gas, silver, wheat, coffee, cocoa, orange juice, zinc, lead, copper, platinum, palladium, ....) so unbelievable cheap that i would like to enter all these positions immediately + wait & struggle few more days till the bottom is over. IMHO it is really just question of few days/weeks! well, there is not enough capital coverage on my trading account for this aggressive kind of trading :o(. folks, it would maybe be aggressive, but not really dangerous as the current prices are very, very low! in the most commodity markets we are not far away from the 'naked' production costs of these commodities and some companies already reduced (or even stopped!) their production as it makes no sense to sell products at these low levels ...


btw, why does my trading platform NOT ACCEPT a stop limit order ('good till cancelled') for my coffee position? should i wait in front of my PC until the markets opens in the morning? what's wrong with the cmc-markets trading software or with their ordering in general?

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Thursday, November 13, 2008

DJIA trades

to do .... 11 DJIA trades ... i was positioned in the correct market direction (up) but at wrong time as the market moved 600 points higher about one hour after my trials (are the folks out there completely crazy? they've had the whole day to buy stocks much, much cheaper and they didn't!! and few minutes later they are willing to pay 600 bucks more for the same stuff !!) ... nevertheless, i could achieve a small profit today :-)

=> to do: to raise some money on my trading account to allow me to bet on some market moves without danger that a loss of 50-100 €uros would (again) cause the liquidation of my remaining (commodity) positions ... hmmmm, why not move some other money to that account? my wife would kill me if i would plunder our 'reserve' account again! beeing dead is IMHO worse than not have enough money for my ideas, isn't it?

++ bad luck with my limit order for silver: my limit was just 2 cents bellow the daily low 8.74 and therefore i've missed the huuuge price recovery (daily high 9.48), which would mean a theoretical profit of 8.47%. i think silver will continue to climb higher in the next few months and years, so let's try to find some other entry point for a new silver position. well, LUCK IS ALSO A PART OF THE GAME :o))

commodities long

to do ... post my trades: orange juice, coffee, natural gas ...

Friday, November 7, 2008

precious metals fair (munich, 07.-08. november)

gold, silver, oil, exploration, mining, much more people than the last few years (a new commodity trend or just the fear of the 2008 financial crisis?), true money instead of paper, old friends, faces behind companies from my investment portfolio ...
...
what about silver producers with strong cash flow + zero debt (?) + strong management + share price more than 80% bellow their highs from march this year? what about companies where you can buy shares cheaper than their managers when founding them? or what about explorer companies with market capitalization equal and sometimes even BELLOW their CASH RESERVES? => the chances of the decade or of our whole freaking life? damned hell, is there any account of my wife or the kids i could plunder before the end of the year :o)? why so quickly? well, the new taxation of stock-market profits from january, 1st is aready agreed by german government... what else? some very good presentations e.g. james turk (gold), dietmar siebholz (rare earths and the aggressive economy in china vs. the sleeping economy in europe), david morgan (silver), rolf nef (inflation, gold, SILVER options). last but not least: a verification of the following hypothesis by myself:

THE FINANCIAL MARKETS ARE INEFFICIENT !!!

why? there have been at least 5 to 6 coin dealers, many of them provided THE SAME investment coins, just the price was different. folks, you could buy 1 oz 'vienna philharmonic' silver coin for 11.50 €uros @ one dealer's desk, few steps away for 12.83 euros @ some other dealer :o)). folks, that is 11.57% more! => ok, let's try some conclusion: well, are the markets really inefficient or just the people soooo stupid? you are right, BOTH !!!
...
btw, which companies did i like most? there were many of them (current market prices offer IMHO huuuuge profit opportunities for people who still have some money to invest :o): scorpio mining, miranda gold, cardero resources, globex minig, paramount gold + silver, source exploration, bravo venture, buffalo gold, ...
...
scorpio? mining? here we go :o))

Thursday, November 6, 2008

black thursday

to do ... document trades: sugar, coffee, 2 x gas, 11x DJIA, tecdax, ...

lessons learned: in nowadays huuuuge-volatility markets i have to place much, much, much tighter trailing stops on winning positions (sugar, coffee, natural gas) as otherwise are the significant parts of theoretical profits wiped out again :o((
the commodity markets are not 'ready' for up-trends yet! even coffee and natural gas, which usually have strong seasonal up-trends in the winter months, ran just 2-3 days significantly up, today were all gains wiped out again :o(( ...

some more words about today = the next panic day:
sugar -6.16%
coffee -4.90%
S&P500 -5.03%
DJIA -4.85% (all 30 stocks negative! best = coca-cola -0.54%, ... ,
alcoa -13,05%
general motors -13.67% = worst)
tecdax -8.63%
nikkei -6.53%
deutsche bank -12.82%
ThyssenKrupp -12.55%
MAN -12.22%
crude oil brent -9.48%
...
=> YES, we have a selling climax just now :-((
...

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

DAY-TRADING DOESN'T FIT MY PERSONALITY ;o((

yes folks, it is sad for me and for my visions & dreams also ... and yes, i had already some doubts about that earlier (see my older day-trading considerations :o), but now i'm sure:


DAY-TRADING DOESN'T FIT MY PERSONALITY ;o((

well, it is the result from my trading experience this week! let me explain that: i took 1 week off to try out how would i succeed in the markets as a day-trader! all surrounding conditions were perfect:

  • i moved some money to my CFD account a week earlier
  • my wife and my youngest daughter are on holidays in poland @ their relatives, so there is no one who could deflect my concentration or take any negative influence on me or on my trading
  • i 'm not tired in front of my screen (as usually :) as i do not have to work 8-10 hours a day in my office and i also sleep enough, because i can read all the business-related data on the internet during the day
  • i have a great mental balance
  • i can often go to gym + swimming (my wife left me her fitness-center-card :) and i also do not have many routine duties, if any :o)
  • additionaly i even get some help and support from my eldest daughter (i'm not the born cook or housekeeper :-) and i also have some nice conversations with her after she returns from university => so i'm even not alone all the day and therefore i cannot lose reality-relationship, which is, IMHO, important.
  • etc.

looks perfect, isn't it? even the markets played to my day-trading favor and 'produced' huuuuge volatility to give me a chance to profit from the big daily moves :o). and what is the result?

on monday i bought some soooo cheap commodities (silver, orange juice, sugar, natural gas, coffee) + made 3 DJIA trades from the tick-chart-window. i've lost 45 €uros as the DJIA didn't like my direction. there was also no big move on that day, so i got wiped-out by usual market 'noise' after the price hit my stop orders. mental result: i was somehow dissapointed as i didn't like that day cycle, but on the other hand, i didn't make any (big) trading mistakes, so i accepted it.

yesterday night was barack hussein obama elected as new u.s. president, so there were big market movements very likely today. i have expected a market rally as obama provides IMHO more hope for peace and friendly developments in the world as his competitor mccain does. japan liked that election outcome and rallied 4.42%, europe didn't. dax -2%, tecdax -4.66% (my limit order near the daily lows was filled, which i liked a lot, because i didn't buy greedy a day earlier after a huge rally near the daily highs and decided to stay out of the market or get that index for a more reasonable price). RING, RING, RING! the bell rings and the u.s. stock-exchanges open its 'doors' => let's watch, decide and trade if the DJIA should provide some trading opportunities :o)).

i made 5 DJIA trades: 4 long; 1 short; 4 small losers; 1 small winner; 1 bad luck as my broker's software (internet connection?) didn't accept a change-order to protect my short-term profit on that trade (i would win $1 instead of losing $14, that means there would not be any significant difference in my P/L statistics anyway :o); as i've expected the market went in that time actually some 80 points higher, but the volatility was too big and my long positions were stopped-out before the price moved significantly higher + before i could increase my trailing-stop orders. btw, i thought that after a short decision phase would the market move much more dynamically into one direction, but it didn't [... the big move came about 2 hours later and it was down]. well, i've lost about €55 and increased my day-trading balance sheet for this week to about 100 €uros (approx. $130). it is not much (and still cheaper than a holiday abroad :-), but consider that i've moved approx. 8 x 9,500 = $ 76,000 on the markets, which would be a lot of money @ an orthodox trading account, isn't it? what about my position trades with commodities + toronto60 index + tecdax index? as for now, they are running pretty well and could win more than my day-trading experiments lost => let's stay a position trader :o)

[... added on thursday 11/06/2008: i've made 11 DJIA trades and moved about 11 x 9,100 = $100,100 on the markets, but the losses were again slightly higher than the wins. IMHO were my wins and losses more the question of luck than of anything else... ]

conclusion: let's stay a position trader + let's keep my office job + let's analyze the markets on the evenings & on the weekends + let's do some fundamental analysis + let's profit from the long-term developments & price movements (instead of tick-chart losses :-)

btw, does it mean that i will never again try any day-trades? no. if sometimes my account size could afford a loss of maybe €50 risk capital AND i should 'accidentally' see some promissing opportunity AND i will be in proper trading mood AND ... AND ... => THEN i could imagine to make a bet and place one order or two in order to pick-up some profits, BUT i DO NOT PLAN to sit down in front of my PC for the sake of day-trading anymore :o)

barack hussein obama

poll: is it too late for improvement of the world order? YES/NO ?
i'm not sure, i hope not, but i'm realy not sure... why? well, in the last few months we saw just huuuuge bailouts + socialisation of losses + government interventions and regulations + an unbelievable increase in money supply all over the world instead of free markets. is there any hope for improvement? yes! yesterday was barack hussein obama elected as the new u.s. president. [btw, who are the strong powers behind him? the kennedy-clan + george soros + zbigniew brzezinski + ??? ok, but is it good or bad for the world? the time will show it :o)]. i hope he will correct few of bush's mistakes and maybe even end the wars on iraq, afghanistan, democracy, terror, ... and reduce budget deficits ... and so on ... that could help a little! but he has to speed up a lot before the winter comes, the kondratieff winter :o((
=> GOOD LUCK BARACK!

to do: my trades ... tecdax, toronto60, 5 x DJIA, ...

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

folks, abolish the comex!

why? you will not get any silver for its 'paper prices'! in my opinion it is just a pure fraud!

folks, a situation is COMPLETE DIFFERENT when you read about it on the internet than if you are affected yourself!!! well, i've read mogambos essay about that strange comex-silver 'phenomenon' last week (A Bull in a Silver Shop), but today i wanted to buy some physical silver myself ...

SILVER vs. SILVER :o). a pretty safe spread trade? huuuuuuuu? yep! sell physical silver for current market price [@ebay?] and buy silver futures (of course, call for physical delivery instead of cash settlement :-)! jaro, could you repeat that idea once again + speak slowly please as we couldn't get it yet! ok, here we go: in the online shop http://proaurum.de/ of germany's largest precious metals dealer was not a single silver product today, therefore i've visited their office in munich off-line today. available silver products? there was just 1 (= ONE !!!) item on the 'we offer today' list: the 1 oz britannia coin. price 15.84 €uros, which is about twice the comex-future price (today morning 7.80 €uros or $9.80). folks, it is 103% more!!! btw, when will the (physical) market abolish comex? when will the fundamentals win against market manipulation? well, britannia is more expensive than american eagle or vienna philharmonic (if available they would probably cost about 12-13 euros (i.e. still + 50%-66%)), but anyway ...

last time i have been there the comex silver price was about 10 euros (at that time maybe $15 or $14) and i could buy many different silver bars and coins. the 1 oz coins (eagles, maple leafs, philharmonics) with a spread of about 30% to paper-silver-price. that is still a lot, but let's consider the small size, costs for minting, transport, 7% tax, sale-commissions, ... so you should not be too angry, it could be worse ... and yes, it is worse now, MUCH WORSE! what could we learn?

limited supply + huge demand = high price

hmmmmm, it looks like if the markets 'work' correctly, isn't it? so why in the hell do we need all these huge government interventions, regulations, bailouts + manipulations all over the western world?


to do: document my trades ... toronto60, silver (again!), nat. gas (position increased)

Monday, November 3, 2008

my bet: commodities long

to do: ... document trades ....

orange juice, silver, natural gas, suggar, coffee, 3 x DJIA, ...

Saturday, November 1, 2008

market outlook 2009+

folks, the crashy year 2008 is over soon, here is my guess for the middle/long term market outlook :o)):

stocks: up! i think we will see an inflationary rally
folks, today = 2 months later = 12/27/2008 i'm not sooo sure if this scenario happens. why? well, despite the unbelievable huuuuge amounts of money pumped into the financial markets by governments + their small dirty central banks, the economy continues contracting itself, people stop buying unnecessary things like new cars, bigger TV-screens, new houses or even new kitchens ... well, if the companies stop making profits or even start making losses, that would probably lower the stock prices even from the current low, low, low levels! IMHO are the governments + their small dirty central banks all over the freaking world doing big, big mistakes with all their dirty bail-outs and market regulations ... i'm afraid that their stupid actions will cause a much more severe recession/depression as we would face without any interference. or do u believe that taking the money from the competent people and companies (tax payers) and giving it to incompetent people and companies (the bailouted banks, car makers etc.) in order to let them compete against the competent ones again will resolve any problems?
don't forget: if printing money were the solution to all economic malinvestments + mistakes zimbabwe were the best country on earth! but it isn't and it is probably the most poor and ruined country instead! hell, why want all this small corrupt politicians in western europe + usa try the zimbabwean way?

commodities: up! a lot! inflation and supply/demand driven

bonds: down! it could be the next bubble which pops! why? interest rates are artificially low and the bonds currently so high; the western governments are so heavily and hopeless over indebted that i do not believe they will pay their debts back one day ;o(. i would rather expect some monetary reform after a sad period of hyperinflation. do YOU see any kind of security in this so 'secure' investments? btw, i do not track bonds closely, so don't think too long about my outlook :O)

inflation: UP, UP, UP! no wonder facing all these huge bailouts in the financial sector. what do i think about the increase in money supply (keyword M3)? don't ask me that, i would have to cry! ok. so what about the price of beer @ oktoberfest or about a price of coffee in the local outdoor swimming pool in few years? don't ask me that either :o((

=> welcome to the INFLATIONARY stocks and assets price rally !
=> welcome to the crack-up boom !!
=> welcome to the kondratieff winter :o(( !!!
=> welcome to state controls + regulations + swindling democracy all over the freaking world !!!!

well, what could that mean for people like you and me? IMHO will the middle class probably dissappear :-((. but don't worry too much about that! we will not dissapear from this freaking planet really, we will just join the poor class ... it could be worse :o)

questions of the day: how long could that false boom last? when will we see not just a default of some 'unimportant' nations (iceland, hungary, ukraine, pakistan = 4 in the last few weeks!!!), but also a bankruptcy of some 'imortant' western economies (US, UK, germany, italy, spain, france, ...)? when will all that fiat paper money fail? when will a major monetary reform arrive on planet earth again? do u have enough gold + silver ALREADY?

how could you protect yourself and your family against all that financial mess out there and prepare somehow for that (not really nice) scenario? it is still the same: buy [@ these low, low, low prices!] as much gold, silver, commodities like oil + agriculture, energy + 'green' energy as u can afford and you will be very, very glad. or don't and u won't ;o))

=> this investing stuff is sooooo easy !!!